So do you refute my claims that improved integration makes things cheaper on its own, and do you refute that lowering power and size also reduce price as a secondary effect? It isn't really a question of how much, it's a question of anything at all, because any price drop is an incentive and you said you see no reason for improved integration with desktops. Or do you think price is irrelevant in desktop systems? Note that I don't think that the large price difference was solely down to complexity either (but seriously, once again, the difference in manufacturing price is not simply due to additional chips costing more, the cost of the motherboard PCB itself is a significant chunk of the BOM cost).
Why would I refute it? Integration will likely lower the overall price of a system. I said mass component integration was not really needed for a desktop system from a hardware standpoint, not a financial one. As for the rest, see below.
Note that desktop doesn't always mean enthusiast either.. I've never owned a real laptop myself, just a crappy netbook. Desktops are just cheaper than laptops for the same sort of system, if you're just going to end up using a standalone screen and keyboard/mouse since the desktop doesn't try to build that in. You don't have to be a gamer to appreciate that.
When I think of the trend towards smaller/cheaper via integration and lower end parts even on desktops I think of something like Raspberry Pi.. which is ostensibly not a mobile platform but is getting attention due to its very low price and small form-factor. While you can't really call it comparable to a desktop either I do know people who intend on using it like a normal computer.
Maybe I should clarify what I have been saying.
We started this convo about me making a claim about a desktop CPU. I claimed that integration of IO components onto the chips was not needed for a desktop system.
There is a reason I claimed that.
Let's with a desktop. I classify as desktop as a system that runs the most powerful version of current hardware. But you brought up that desktops are cheaper than laptops for laptops of the same hardware level. True, but this gets a bit murkier.
Cheap desktops are a bit different these days. Go to your local computer store, and check the specs of a cheap desktop. You probably be surprised to find that *surprise* they run mobile processors and gpu's. Celerons and mobile Athlon's. Sandy Pentiums and Mobile Tri Core's. Heck, even some Imac's run mobile GPU's instead of "desktop level" chips. And more than 50% run mobile chips in a desktop environment, and that number is growing by the day. Your posts about integration lowers cost as an incentive to buy, and that is correct. Mobile chips crave and NEED integration. The more they can integrate, the better they will be.
I have absolutely NO problem with these. None. Nada. Zilch.
Now this is where the disconnect and the reason I posted that claim comes in..
Regular, full TDP desktop CPU's. CPU's that are fullsize, and only meant to be run in a
desktop environment.
Let's take the i7 2600K. Very few store desktops haven this CPU in a prebuilt non-ordered off the shelf system. Likely less than 10% of all desktops have this chip.
The i7 2600K has a mobile GPU on it's die.
Why? What purpose does it serve? Who with a K level chip will use a weak integrated GPU? Less than 5%.
Again, on saving power. The "K" denotes it's unlocked. So you can be pretty certain it will be overclocked with increased voltage.
So why lower voltage requirements...not just lower them, but make them a prime incentive to buy? Why so bullish on TDP if the desktop user has more than enough power to dissipate the heat?
The answer is obvious.
The Sandy Bridge core was designed as a mobile chip
first, a desktop chip
second.
And that trend will continue. Integration does little to nothing for enthusiasts (who own desktop systems). It does everything for your average user, who more than ever know choose a mobile platform (mainly laptops) over a desktop. Laptops surpassed desktops in sales back in 2008, and have never looked back.
Intel knows this. They are pouring billions into R&D not for the enthusiast, but for the lucrative mobile market. There are nearly twice the amount of CPU's available to the mobile sector verses the desktop sector.
To be on point though, integration of components will have no net benefit for someone who overclocks or uses the system extensively for cpu intensive tasks. Maybe Intel will find a way that this can benefit an enthusiast, I don't know, but as it stands, integration only enhances a mobile setup to a significant degree, not a desktop based one.
A long time ago I surmised that Intel would soon make the mobile line the focus before the desktop. And it's happening now. Intel is pulling out all the stops to make sure they own the mobile market out of the gate, before the chips even hit the shelves.
To this end, that's why you see a useless video chip on a processor that likely will never fully utilize it. To keep R&D costs downs and yields up, we desktop users get integrated chips.
Now I am all for cheaper systems overall. But a highend or even competent motherboard are
not going to lower the price per unit just because a few chips moved onto the CPU die. They will stay the same (or even increase if you are dealing with a hot just out the door chipset.)
So in closing I hope I cleared myself up. All what you claimed is valid, but only makes perfect sense if applying to a mobile platform. A modern desktop does not need such integration to stay relevant.
Unfortuantly, desktops are not the main market now. Yes they have the most power. Yes they are the most (arguably) stable market. But there's one thing desktops do not have: Money. Billions upon billions are being poured into the mobile market. More people than ever are choosing laptops over desktops. Who gets a desktop for Christmas? Who gets a laptop for Christmas? You can buy a decent brand new laptop for less than $320. You can also buy a desktop with that money, but funnily enough, it will have the same or slightly more power, but more expansion options. That's it. The days of powerful desktops costing less than laptops are over. Thin laptops are still expensive, as are gaming ones, but at the super cheap level, they are actually very evenly matched. And to be honest, most people will spring for the laptop over the desktop.
Example:
$329
http://www.microcenter.com/single_product_results.phtml?product_id=0382601
$329
http://www.microcenter.com/single_product_results.phtml?product_id=0373743
Similar specs. The desktop is faster, but not by much. And remember, you need a monitor, keyboard and mouse. So if going apple to apple, you need something like this:
$199
http://www.microcenter.com/single_product_results.phtml?product_id=0384826
In such a situation, most people spring for the laptop.
My point is more and more the real desktop systems, powered by desktop processors, are usually in the hands of enthusiasts. The market for high end OEM desktop systems are disappearing. Pretty soon most cheap affordable desktops will be powered by mobile chips do to the higher yield and lower cost.
This is an unfair comparison. I had a more costly system than you did, plus peripherals, plus upgrades, and I still might not have spent as much. I also bought it earlier than 2009 when components were likely more expensive. Either something is amiss, or the water cooling (or something other than the Intel/AMD exclusive parts) is why, and if so, that sort of voids your point.A desktop is not just an "enthusiast system". The vast majority aren't.
For the desktop bit, see above. As for the rest, I could have saved nearly $300 by using AMD instead of Intel. The price I paid is irrelevant and my assertion is still valid.
It's funny to see how detached some people get from reality by looking at sales trends. Sales can be telling, yes, but they aren't the whole story.
Before I get into this, when I say "Mobile market", I mean laptops, not tablets or smartphones.
Aside from that, the reality is that the money being poured into Mobile, Smartphone and Tablet R&D likely quadruples the money being spent on desktop innovation.
As for when and how it supersedes it, I'll have more fun watching it than listening to people claiming it. Microsoft/Bill Gates said tablets would be more powerful than PCs either before or by five years time... back in around 2002 when Windows XP was new!
See above. Tablets will never replace desktops. They are for media consumption only until a better interface is designed other than a simple capacitive touchscreen.
On that point, instead of looking at outright power, look at relative advancement..
In terms of advancement, the mobile trifecta has moved far more quickly than desktops. Some smartphones sport 2gb of DDR2 ram, dual core processors exceeding 1GHZ in speed, screens with pixel density that make even the most dense LCD look pixelated. And all this happened within 5 years. And it gets quicker. You can't simply ignore that smartphone's are on the bleeding edge right now in terms of innovation speed.
The matter is, at this point, they are all PCs, just in different form factors, and they all have their roles. I can see the desktop going away as the prime one, but it's not the same as it becoming extinct (I'll get more on this below).
Desktops will not become extinct, simply because they are the most cost effective way to test new ideas...before dumping them into the fast moving mobile sector.
Regarding extinction, it's not just the "desktop" in question here anyway, it's laptops as well (and anything "non-touch"). If anything, the laptop is more irrelevant in my opinion than the desktop now. But hey, that's just my foolish opinion; you'd never guess by looking at all the laptops around campuses, just like you'd never guess the desktop is dead by looking at the business or even home sectors. Still, with tablets/smart phones, that leaves the laptop filling a much more niche space than desktops do (and were it not for campuses, I feel it would be much more so the case). Desktops still have the advantage of power and cost, but laptops are stuck between desktops and smaller touch devices. They still have a space, yes, but it's so much more niche than the desktop is. Laptops were one day heralded to replace desktops too, and now they may never do that or even outlive them. Keep that in mind with all these "forecasts" people give. The one interesting thing about tech is that you can't truly know.
Laptops are irreverent? How so? At this point the R&D finance being used to make new video cards or other components for your system is largely paid for by the proliferation of laptops. Laptops will not replace desktops. But where do you think a companies R&D money goes these days? To desktops? Or the more lucrative mobile market?
When was the last time a groundbreaking innovation was made for a desktop? They don't happen, they tend to do so overtime, because a desktop is a collection of components, while a laptop (to a normal buyer) is a cohesive whole. And that image is what's fueling the mobile push now.
As for tablets, sure, they are popular, but everyone who has one has a normal PC.
The truth is, like I said, these are all PCs in different form factors, and right now, they all are serving a good enough use.
I agree.
Desktops are for power, flexibility, and cost. They're the biggest, but there's smaller form factors for them too.
Agree with power and flexibility, cost, not so much. We are not in 2007 anymore.
Laptops are for mobility.
More and more people use them at home only. Like myself, none of my laptops leave my room unless absolutely necessary.
Tablets/smartphones are more so (for mobility and size), and for touch. In the case of smart phones, they're also, you know... phones (although PCs can do this, few use one primarily for that).
Some smartphones have buttons. And I think that the majority being touch based is their biggest downfall, regulating them to light (very light) work only.
The power per cost and flexibility/capability generally goes down with each form factor. As of right now, as I see it, none are in no real danger of becoming extinct tomorrow. I do think that if/when the desktop does, the traditional laptop will be with it anyway. By then, we'll have tablets/smartphones spiritual successors that we hook up to "docking stations" for the role of desktops, while they themselves remain mobile. You can never know though; that's just my own subjective guess that even I'm not too sure on. Either way, I think things will change more than it will be a case of anything "going away completely", even if some things as we know it change. As they say, the more things change, the more they stay the same.
Anyway, yeah... big digression.
I never heard that any one of them will become extinct, except for Job's mantra. I'm still waiting for the flux capacitor attachment for my desktop though. I heard IBM was working on it....