Hmmm...where are you guys getting this price from? Last I heard, it was still unannounced. I'm pretty sure MS wouldn't release a console with such an unreasonable price point.
I think the Xbox has a good chance, I like how they're saying they designed the thing for the devolpers not the end-users. Regardless, it owns the PS2 and the only real competition is even more secretive (GameCube) so nobody can be sure what's going to happen.