Ive heard that many games spend as much on marketing aa they do on development, but even then: wouldnt you spenf 300 to 400m if it meant you got 1000m in return? I also find it unlikely that only 1 out of 5 games makes back its money. The FF7 remake sold 3.5m in the first 3 days, Days Gone was a surpise hit and even the comparatively low sales of Death Stranding appears to have been enough to make a nice profit. I dont think theyve released official numbers, but the budget was believed to be between 50m to 100m, with the game making about 200m so far.That only apply to a successful game at the end of the generation though. AAA games are being released right from the start and 1 out of 5 titles may get the money back(I remember reading that from a Sony exec interview) and that is exactly the problem. AAA games are getting way too expensive and if the game don't sell well for whatever the reason the loss is huge. You also forget that 200m isn't everything and for instance TLOU 2 have a very heavy marketing which cost a lot of money as well. For instance I turn my Fire Stick and get a huge TLOU 2 banner and the same goes for YouTube, FB, news etc.
Unless I misunderstood and you meant that 1 out of 5 games released at launch makes back its budget, in which case I can absolutely believe it. The launch window is hell for developers and publishers.