You got one of the numbers correct. The odds of correctly predicting each result are as follows:
1 number: 1 in 2.421
2 numbers: 1 in 7.554
3 numbers: 1 in 56.656
4 numbers: 1 in 1,032.397
5 numbers: 1 in 55,491.333
5 + bonus: 1 in 2,330,636
6 numbers: 1 in 13,983,816
Here is the complete, up to date table of records for the UK lottery (the lotto) showing the results in the order of numbers drawn:
UK National Lotto Numbers Drawn
As for Derren Brown...
Derren Brown said:
"To tell them how it was done, 'Pathetically I just slipped the coin off the table', would be to take away their amazement and replace it with disappointment. Try that once. You'll see they switch from thinking it was a great piece of magic, to at best an average trick."
Derren Brown said:
"I am often dishonest in my techniques, but always honest about my dishonesty. As I say in each show, 'I mix magic, suggestion, psychology, misdirection and showmanship'. I happily admit cheating, as it's all part of the game. I hope some of the fun for the viewer comes from not knowing what's real and what isn't. I am an entertainer first and foremost, and I am careful not to cross any moral line that would take me into manipulating people's real-life decisions or belief systems."
Derren Brown said:
"So if I'm ever asked how I predicted the lottery, I'm going to say, it was just a trick!"
The official explanation which he gives relies on a phenomenon known as "the wisdom of crowds". He gives an example of how in 1906, a crowd of people were trying to guess the weight of an ox at some event. All predictions were incorrect, however someone decided to add up all the guesses at the end and divide them by the number of attempts to see what the average was. Apparently, the result was the precise weight of the ox, which gives the conclusion that groups of people tend to make much better decisions than individuals.
During the programme, he plays with this idea and gathers a group of 24 people to examine the patterns they believe they can see in the record of national lottery numbers over the last year, to see if they can predict the next ones. (He takes averages of all guesses from the group for each predicted number.) He also shows that the group make more accurate predictions after spending more time in each others company and becoming closer and more comfortable with one another.
Of course, if this isn't how it was done, there are plenty of other possible explanations. Whatever the case however, if it was faked (which seems to be the most likely explanation), all of the participants would've had to have been acting/hypnotized/tricked in some way (or something to that effect). The split screen explanation is apparently a strong contender for explaining how the winning lottery balls were produced live on camera.
If you're still without doubt however, I'll share with you one question which is most prominent in my mind:
For someone who went out of his way to convince the audience his prediction was authentic, why did he wait until after the draw to show the predicted numbers?
Anyway, if you're interested in Derren Brown, I'd recommend watching The Events this Friday. He claims to have made some kind of video which will literally make the audience at home "stick to their seats".
