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There is always hope, but you have to supply it.
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Discussion Starter #1
I'm very seriously considering playing poker for all my financial income.

Soon, in the beginning of March, my contract expires and I will be either out of work or working part time. My savings have drawn dry but were well spent. Now I need to turn over enough money to live on at a minimum.

I would need £200 per week.

In poker, I usually turn over around £300 per day but there is some big leaks where I've lost thousands on single hands. The players are all VERY VERY VERY good at high limits.

I can turn over around £30 per day on 50nl rock solid with only about 1 hours work.

I work a tight bankroll system. The poker money is chips and not real money mentally. I don't withdraw often.

Moving to professional functionality will increase the swing of my variance as I regularly withdraw money from the poker site.

It's a big life decision and I just need to vent and discuss it. It's mental chess.
If I decide to go pro, I would eventually (within a few years) move to nosebleeds.

Nosebleeds poker can really be risky and mega painful. We're talking about taking 10k or so to each table.
1 bad swing of emotional instability can wipe years of grinding in a morning.

Any of you guys play poker?
What level?
 

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Linux's worst nightmare..
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the extent of my gambling is scratch tickets...
i feel bad enough when i lose out on a 5 dollar ticket i couldnt imagine losing any more at one time :dead:
 

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Super Moderator
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At least play it safe.
Sticking with smallfry with deep pockets also brings less headaches overall, since they can move on easily, as opposed to if someone lost a million to you (you wouldnt want scary masked men visiting you in the night).

For myself, I dont play it for anything but exclusively fun and the social experience.
For that, I would perhaps recommend you consider something more stable. Gambling is after all pretty much random luck, and you can always cross the road of more skilled players, better cheaters or plainly even just people that intimidate participants into losing.
 

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There is always hope, but you have to supply it.
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Discussion Starter #4 (Edited)
the extent of my gambling is scratch tickets...
i feel bad enough when i lose out on a 5 dollar ticket i couldnt imagine losing any more at one time :dead:
I've lost 3,000 in one hand before.

Quad kings hit against my full house (AAAKK) that's like super rare.

£3,000 currently (after tax) is 6 months wages at my job. I lost that 3k hand last week. To be honest, it made me feel a bit deflated for an hour or so but not any more.

I work very hard at my job. 30 hours a week.

Thing is, poker isn't actually gambling. It's like calling starcraft gambling. All strategy and studying brah.

Know what to do and when and you'll always win over a large hand sample.

Verneer, vinvici, ronfar, ahhs. They all crush the game like clockwork.









I get similar graphs but much lower volume.

At least play it safe.
Sticking with smallfry with deep pockets also brings less headaches overall, since they can move on easily, as opposed to if someone lost a million to you (you wouldnt want scary masked men visiting you in the night).

For myself, I dont play it for anything but exclusively fun and the social experience.
For that, I would perhaps recommend you consider something more stable. Gambling is after all pretty much random luck, and you can always cross the road of more skilled players, better cheaters or plainly even just people that intimidate participants into losing.
I play online mostly, when it comes to stack sizing I do marginally adjust my ranges to suit the threat and potential ev.

Safety-wise, 25nl is bread and butter to me. I'm better than regs at the stakes and clean up 18 bb/100. (big blinds per 100 hands)

Since a big blind is $0.25 that's a winrate of nearly $5 per 100 hands. With 4 tables that's $20 an hour.

As for poker being random luck, it's really not. Variance occurs but if you play by mathematics alone weighing in the odds of your hand versus the pot odds of calling, just falling on the side of profit always rewards long term.

If I have a 60% chance of winning and my reads say the player is loose and dicey then calling a raise that costs 1/2 the outstanding pot is into positive value for me. Sure, I might lose the hand but I'll win 60% of all these situations at worst case.

If I have reads, I'll fold and value bet accordingly and turn over about %80 win rate at showdown.

There's an equal chance of getting any cards preflop.

Over 1,000,000 hands I would expect every single possible combination of holecards to be the same percentage.
If I know how to handle each combination and in relation to the opponents and table position then I win very consistently.


If you look at the graph above, the one with the three lines is very straight in all three.
This is because vinvici plays incredibly tight and mathematical. There's no swinginess because he handles situations almost perfectly in relation to abc math poker.

That dude made half a million last year (the blue line including rakeback)

Now look at the bottom graph. See how it is swingy with waviness and stuff?

That player doesn't play as mathematically every hand. He adjusts his hands to the players he has isolate.
Making them fold, high value betting. Riskier play but bigger rewards if you keep good folds.

Each player plays differently but they ALL are very smart at maths and strategy.

I'm aggressive as hell. Like the bottom graph. It is less safe but I can adjust my play to suit bad swings of variance.

In the long run, there's similar winrates but I find the aggression to be more fun than nitting up like vinvici.
I would place myself almost as good a player as him. Just less confident at his stakes.
 

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Retired
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Gambling is after all pretty much random luck,
Poker is not like, say, Roulette. Although you can lose a single hand due to bad luck, there's a solid mathematical foundation that enables one to secure long-term gains (provided one can master the other aspects of the game - a non-trivial task anyway you look at it).

@Kaizen: Can't you get something like a part-time job and pursue a career in poker? Hedging is always good, you know.
 

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Hackin 'n Slashin
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You really have to stop with all this risky business John. Yes poker is fun and yes some people can make enough off it to live but those same people could lose their house the next day with a bad run of luck. They're compulsive gamblers who live a sad life which they live in constant denial from by buying themselves cool toys whenever they do have a winfall.

Seriously man don't do it. A tournament with a bit of spare change now and then sure, but anything more than that will turn you into an empty husk of your former self.
 

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There is always hope, but you have to supply it.
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Discussion Starter #7 (Edited)
Poker is not like, say, Roulette. Although you can lose a single hand due to bad luck, there's a solid mathematical foundation that enables one to secure long-term gains (provided one can master the other aspects of the game - a non-trivial task anyway you look at it).

@Kaizen: Can't you get something like a part-time job and pursue a career in poker? Hedging is always good, you know.
It's very much like chess where you have a mastered set of strategic subroutines that you run and adapt to the opponents play.

Every action that you make which closely predicts the opponents hold cards is profitable.

You really have to stop with all this risky business John. Yes poker is fun and yes some people can make enough off it to live but those same people could lose their house the next day with a bad run of luck. They're compulsive gamblers who live a sad life which they live in constant denial from by buying themselves cool toys whenever they do have a winfall.

Seriously man don't do it. A tournament with a bit of spare change now and then sure, but anything more than that will turn you into an empty husk of your former self.
High stakes online poker is different to casino poker. There's no casual players.

Edit: To clarify, at a casino £200 buy in tables have the skill level of £5 buy in tables online.
Online players study more, play more and think more.

I could tour a few casinos every week and live like a king but playing online is much less profitable for now.
The balance is that more online play allows me to get 4x the experience and move up to high stakes years earlier. (tables with £10k buy in)

Everyone at those tables is utterly pro with millions of hands at all stakes. It's rare to see anyone who isn't brilliant.

Everyone sitting at the table has a bankroll of at least 50 buy ins.
Winning their stacks damages their bankroll but NEVER endangers their ability to play.

If I were to lose 10 buy ins, I would move to a lower stake and build it back up.

What you're talking about is degen players who can't control their financial investments into poker and play unhealthily, those players bottom out before they can get anywhere near the kind of stakes I'm going to play.

If one of these degen players were to lose enough money to lose their house or wipe their financial savings, the problem would be a result of at least 10-20 thousand bad hands. Just being one of them does not make me unethical, over the period of weeks of bad play, they should move down stakes and recover. If they don't then perhaps they need to gain more self respect.

Whenever I do see a bad fish over a 5k hand sample, I usually recommend some study items in the chat window and point out their biggest flaws.

Some get mad, others become friendly.

I notice people are more friendly to my advice if I have a lot of money at the table. That's a big part of their downfall.
They are influenced by money and not strategy and correct play
 

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Hopeless Optimist
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From this, I'd conclude you're playing short and loose. You try many hands, and spook your opponents into folding. On the occasions when this doesn't work, your hands tend not to hold up.
This strategy can add up, as you have seen and proven, but it can be hazardous if you do fall on hard times and get a run of bad hands. In this cases, you need an insurance to fall back on.

My advice on your opening question would be: get a job that nets you just a tiny bit more than you need to make ends meet, and put the surplus on a "gaming" account. Make it imperative for yourself that you only play with your designated money. Never stock it up from your "living" account, no "just this once" things.
With that money, you can gamble, you can multiply, you can prosper. You may even think ahead and and pull money off your "gaming" account once you reached, say, 10 or 100k. That way, you'll have a net win and you'll actually be able to spend it on things beyond the casino table.
Kaizen said:
High stakes online poker is different to casino poker. There's no casual players.

Edit: To clarify, at a casino £200 buy in tables have the skill level of £5 buy in tables online.
Online players study more, play more and think more.
I'd like to add something to that: pro online players may play their cards better, but pro face-to-face players have another option: they can play the player. You have very little psychological cues in online poker. No faces, no involuntary tics, only the time they take to place a bet and the smack talk they volunteer in the chatbox.
I wouldn't say an "offline" player thinks less, but he may think about other things.
 

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There is always hope, but you have to supply it.
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Discussion Starter #10
From this, I'd conclude you're playing short and loose. You try many hands, and spook your opponents into folding. On the occasions when this doesn't work, your hands tend not to hold up.
This strategy can add up, as you have seen and proven, but it can be hazardous if you do fall on hard times and get a run of bad hands. In this cases, you need an insurance to fall back on.

My advice on your opening question would be: get a job that nets you just a tiny bit more than you need to make ends meet, and put the surplus on a "gaming" account. Make it imperative for yourself that you only play with your designated money. Never stock it up from your "living" account, no "just this once" things.
With that money, you can gamble, you can multiply, you can prosper. You may even think ahead and and pull money off your "gaming" account once you reached, say, 10 or 100k. That way, you'll have a net win and you'll actually be able to spend it on things beyond the casino table.

I'd like to add something to that: pro online players may play their cards better, but pro face-to-face players have another option: they can play the player. You have very little psychological cues in online poker. No faces, no involuntary tics, only the time they take to place a bet and the smack talk they volunteer in the chatbox.
I wouldn't say an "offline" player thinks less, but he may think about other things.
I understand you mean well but I'm far more experienced and educated at nlhe than you seem to portray. Not leveling bro but I spend more time every week playing, studying maths and meta game than I do at my 30 hour a week job

I haven't posted any of my own graphs or stats.

You can also "play the player" in online poker. It's all about notes and statistical analysis. Adjust your range to their vpip and board texture. Quarter your re-raises to their top 10% range and bet for value.

Grindcore is the sickest online reader. He makes soul punches to guys trying to displace and camouflage their play.

He's taken thousands with air ..at showdown ...repeatedly and consistently.
The dude reads into bet sizes and history.

Brag: my last 12 months - Poker Beats Brags and Variance

You should go spend a few weeks in 2+2 forums. Within a few hundred hours of practice and study, you'll beat 25nl consistently.

At 10bb and 5k hands a day you're talking about $125 a day playing for 8 hours.

That's what I plan on making my bread and butter due to bankroll management constraints. I could beat 100nl but I'm not rolled for it.

Pure discipline and patience.
 

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Hopeless Optimist
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Meh, I'm too impatient. I got the theory and some of the numbers down, but I couldn't pull it off consistently and would be too tempted to keep it rational.
Still, my advice on keeping poker "part-time" stands. You said you'd never want to be one of those who bet their home on a hand, and this way, you'd never be forced to.
 

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There is always hope, but you have to supply it.
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Discussion Starter #12
Meh, I'm too impatient. I got the theory and some of the numbers down, but I couldn't pull it off consistently and would be too tempted to keep it rational.
Still, my advice on keeping poker "part-time" stands. You said you'd never want to be one of those who bet their home on a hand, and this way, you'd never be forced to.
With brm, when I get to that stage, I'll have enough money for 100 homes
 

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There is always hope, but you have to supply it.
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Discussion Starter #13
It felt baller to show my father that I made a week of wages whilst just watching emmerdale in the same room on my laptop.

He has been in a major mood the few days since then.

Considering going to live in a grindhouse in glasgow and tour the casinos here.
Guys at the locales have about £2,000 per table and are THE MOST TERRIBLE PLAYERS.

I think they're all super rich idiots. Stacking off with like j4o preflop to regs with like 10 vpip utg.

For you guys, this is a grindhouse:


There's some great players I could live with around here that could round with me and sweat up games.
 

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~ Lord of Darkness ~
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I've no idea what was said in this thread, the topic itself didn't demand that I read it just that I give a very simple opinion: get a job. Want to earn money through games? Do it part time but for the love of whatever you believe in (God(s), maths, science...C'thulhu) have a stable job~.
 

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Considering being a poker player for a living.
From someone who's been on this planet 10 more years than you, I could go on a long diatribe about gambling and what you should do with your money. I don't think anything I can say can convey my message better than this short sentence though:

Don't be a retard!
 

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My thoughts remain hidden
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A lot of people have a few years of playing high stakes poker and earn a load of money before they finally quit. As with any gambling game, you can win big, but you can lose big. I've played poker for 3 years or so and im still around a break-even point, as luck sometimes doesnt go your way (by that i mean an AK hand can get beaten by a pair of 22's). So just think twice before you try and do it for a living. If you are keen on doing it, stick to low stakes with the occasional high stakes game.
 

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Retired
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I've no idea what was said in this thread, the topic itself didn't demand that I read it just that I give a very simple opinion: get a job. Want to earn money through games? Do it part time but for the love of whatever you believe in (God(s), maths, science...C'thulhu) have a stable job~.
Tell that to, say, Tom Dwan :p
 

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There is always hope, but you have to supply it.
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Discussion Starter #19 (Edited)
A lot of people have a few years of playing high stakes poker and earn a load of money before they finally quit. As with any gambling game, you can win big, but you can lose big. I've played poker for 3 years or so and im still around a break-even point, as luck sometimes doesnt go your way (by that i mean an AK hand can get beaten by a pair of 22's). So just think twice before you try and do it for a living. If you are keen on doing it, stick to low stakes with the occasional high stakes game.
You have a leak with AK.

What stakes and conditions cause you to call large preflop with AK.

At any stake below 200NL. You should fold AK in every case except a >500 hand history shows the villain has an unusual (above 7.8%) 3bet percentage and a PF vpip of > 22%. You must also have position and strong postflop game.

Tell that to, say, Tom Dwan :p
durr started off in a grindhouse

Jungleman is my HU hero though. Busto'd to McDonalds then back to robusto for mils.

I've no idea what was said in this thread, the topic itself didn't demand that I read it just that I give a very simple opinion: get a job. Want to earn money through games? Do it part time but for the love of whatever you believe in (God(s), maths, science...C'thulhu) have a stable job~.
Already have a job. I make 4x as much with poker currently over 250,000 hands and I'm small stakes.

Work 30 hours a week in a costa coffee cafe for £6.17 per hour.

I spend at least 15 hours a week studying poker from some of the best teachers available. (a mix of verneer, citezenwind and ronfar3 via cardrunners and blogs)

Poker isn't gambling in the way people assign it. Every time you make a better decision than your opponent then it's +ev. Do it consistently and over time you ALWAYS win the graph.

Even when you have a 5 buy in loss day and that's where most of the luck hits against you, the rake equals the loss.
 
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